The file of gas and demarcation can be one of the biggest reasons for extorting the economic classifications of Lebanon in its political part. It can also be one of the reasons for direct and indirect pressure. This is how they want one of Lebanon’s most important cards of power to turn into a blackmail against it.
The Lebanese economic reality is governed by three basic trends, which have been contributed by choices, mechanisms and specific patterns that have prevailed for more than a quarter of a century. Accumulation produced a structurally distorted economic and financial reality that led to highly critical, accurate and risky digital indicators: the first trend, the financial collapse and the ensuing collapse in institutions, asset pricing and the evaporation of savings of all kinds with the fall of forms of the prevailing economic system, without necessarily implying the complete fall of the foundation. The current economic model.
The second trend, real reform based on opposite options in the economy first, and then in fiscal policies and then monetary unlike everything that prevailed for more than a quarter of a century. The essence of the change is based on productive economy and labor rather than rent or brokerage. This change must include mechanisms that put an end to quotas, corruption, theft of public funds and law enforcement, all of which are a more general pattern of laws and transcend the economy to society as a whole. The third trend is the continuation of the current economic reality with securing and consuming all available and possible reserves now and in the future and selling all assets and even future wealth.
These scenarios do not present major negative or positive coups (collapse or reform) but impose a change in the balance of control forces and improvements in formality and the introduction of new mechanisms and different forms, some of which may seem contrary to the preceding, but in essence, consecrate the adopted economic model. Today’s talk of an economic and financial paper based on the Cedar Conference and the Mackenzie Plan (the company itself formally demanded the withdrawal of its name) is only a return to the options that have prevailed since the Taif Accord, with Lebanon experiencing catastrophic consequences! These three options – are they possible or easy, or are they related to the local or private wishes of the parties, some of them, or external ones? The economic dimension cannot be separated and isolated from all the complexities related to the geopolitical realities of Lebanon and the region and the local, regional and other political entanglements. Especially by the political parties that did not interfere directly in the economic file or as some forces now act on the pretext that the file is political first and last.
Sayid Mohamad Hussein Fadlallah was comparing Lebanon and his economy, specifically, to the flying paper, where it is not allowed to fly and it is not allowed to land, and it continues to fluctuate and it seems that for its history there is no decision to collapse by those who can do it or a decision of reform and change by those who are supposed to do so. A number of data overlap each other, noting that their overlap is not coincidental or innocent, but has been working to consecrate it, including: First, confusion to the limits of integration between the severe economic crisis and accumulated successively since 1992 as a result of dozens of factors inherited and emerging, especially what occurred at the time of legislation and laws consistent with Lebanon’s service options And the promised peace and others.
The second is to rid the local capabilities, whether available now or that can be made available, as if the country is bankrupt while wasted resources (mitigating a stolen word) are estimated at billions of dollars annually and are well-known sources and estuaries as well as the management of resources and assets. Secondly, the oil and gas wealth and take it completely out of the economic equation and restrict the benefits by slowing the work or restrict the promises to the beneficiaries and their chosen nationalities or conditions that leak from time to time.
Here, gas cannot be overlooked by its strategic dimension and Lebanon’s position and strength linked to the border dispute over the demarcation of the sea area and the land border with the Israeli enemy. To this sector in this part of the world.
This is a process that may continue for several years, by selling everything for the continuation of state funding with the political forces and may be associated with the coming resources of gas and oil and perhaps partly from the reconstruction of Syria… and then promises to start with a fundamental difference, when all the resources evaporate and remain the basis of the problem.